NFL Schedule Over/Under, Part I
With the recent release of the NFL’s 2009 Regular Season Schedule, we finally get a chance to try and validate our meaningless predictions on how the season will turn out. While at some point in the near future my win/loss predictions will be posted (haven’t gotten the code working quite yet), I prefer to make a list of things we can almost certainly expect from certain various games throughout the season.
Here’s a list of over/under predictions for the first half of the season, one per week.
Week 1: Number of times Tony Kornheiser says “Matt Cassel” during the MNF premiere (Bills vs. Patriots) -10 over Patriots’ score.
Tony Kornheiser is possibly the worst broadcaster this side of Joe Buck. He has nothing to offer in terms of game commentary, humor, or even old-fashioned intelligent observation. He manages to switch the focus from the game to a storyline that has no doubt been beaten to death during the (off)season. During last year’s opener when the rest of the country was trying to concentrate on the Vikings and Packers, Kornheiser talked about Brett Favre. Two weeks later when the Jets got blown out against the Chargers, he talked about Aaron Rodgers. I cringe in anticipation of the Matt Cassel/Jerry Jones/Tony Romo blurbs we’re going to have to endure. I put the final score of the Bills/Patriots at oh… 20-31 New England.
Week 2: Years Matt Cassel spent as a backup +30 over Jamarcus Russell’s passer rating in the Oakland/KC Week 2 matchup.
The only good thing about the Raiders’ season this year will be that we can all finally talk openly about how big of a bust JaMarcus Russell is. Attention Lions fans: What’s that on Matt Stafford being the “only” choice for the first overall pick?
Week 3: Jay Cutler touchdowns +1 over number of Seattle Wide Receivers on injured reserve after Week 3’s Chicago/Seattle game.
Last year the Seahawks brought in Koren Robinson to start. Koren Robinson.
Week 4: Number of passes completed against Nnamdi Asomugha +5 over Jamarcus Russell completions (total) in Week 4’s Oakland vs. Houston game.
I hate to keep ragging on the guy, but JaMarcus Russell is just terrible. On the upside, the new $45 million dollar man (Asomugha) has certainly earned his payday, quietly shutting down his side of the field with ruthless efficiency.
Week 5: Number of “Brett Favre” mentions -10 over Total Points scored in Week 5’s NY Jets vs Miami game.
Since it’s Monday night, Kornheiser returns to the anticlimax of the newfound Jets/Dolphins “rivalry.” Never mind who the Jets’ starting quarterback is (it doesn’t matter)- even if it was Matt Stafford the only person the MNF crew will talk about is the (assumedly) retired Brett Favre and how he blew the Jets’ postseason chances last year with a game that everyone knew was coming.
Week 6: Sage Rosenfels interceptions over Baltimore touchdowns in Week 6’s Vikings vs. Ravens game.
Don’t worry, Sage Rosenfels will be starting by week 4. Rosenfels is a turnover machine with a budding career as a helicopter impressionist (see: Indianapolis Colts, 2008 Week 5). The Ravens have a ballhawking secondary and a defensive line that can create pressure. Pressure + turnover-prone quarterback = interceptions.
Week 7: James Harrison sacks over Santonio Holmes receptions in Week 7’s Vikings vs. Steelers game.
We all know how Santonio Holmes made possibly the best catch in Super Bowl history last February to seal the win. Problem is, during the regular season he only managed to reach 5 interceptions in 5 games, and two of those were against the miserable Bengals.
Week 8: Stadium attendance over number of people watching on TV in Week 8’s “battle of the top draft picks” St. Louis Rams vs. Detroit Lions game.
In fairness, this one is probably going to get blacked out- but even the people unlucky enough to be at the game will be wishing they were somewhere else. I guess that’s been true for Lions fans ever since Barry Sanders retired, though.
Week 9: Number of Wildcat plays that gain 3 yards or less over plays with Lawrence Maroney on the field in Week 9’s Miami vs. New England game.
The Wildcat blew the Patriots out of the water last year in week 3, starting an annoying trend throughout the league in which direct snaps to the running back and other assorted trickery became the norm. As the season went on, defenses adjusted and the Wildcat lost its effectiveness- a trend that most teams didn’t seem to notice and/or care about since they kept at it. On the other side we’ve got Lawrence “Do-nothing” Maroney who has been all but replaced by stars like Sammy Morris, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Kevin Faulk, and LaMont Jordan.
Stay tuned for the second half of the season.
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