The 2008 NFL Expectations Power Rankings, 32-17
Every year teams go into the season with baggage- a Super Bowl victory or defeat, major offseason acquisitions or releases, a history of being horrible, or perennial underachievers. While it’s true that win differential doesn’t tell the whole story- the Patriots couldn’t be expected to repeat their perfect regular season, nor could anyone have reasonably expected the Lions to lose every game in 2008 (or could they?)- it provides a fun look at the league’s booms and busts. Context means everything for teams like the Chargers and the Cowboys, while the same weaknesses that plagued the Bills and the Texans in 2007 helped them to a repeat performance in 2008. Here’s the bottom of the list with commentary starting with the largest negative differential to the largest positive differential. In cases of ties, the team that had more wins in 2007 got the lower ranking on the negative side while the team that had less wins in 2007 got the lower ranking on the positive side. (Note: this is a pre-draft edited version of my original post on a friend’s blog. It can be found here.)
32. [-7] Green Bay Packers (2007: 13-3, 2008: 6-10) – It is genuinely difficult to pin down the root causes of the 2008 Packers’ ineptitude. Some people might point to the Brett Favre saga/trade installing Aaron Rodgers as the franchise quarterback. That doesn’t fly very far when you look at Rodgers’ numbers (4038 yards, 28 TDs, 13 interceptions) compared to Favre’s (3472 yards, 22 TDs, 22 interceptions). Ryan Grant’s slow start might have played a part, but the Packers were doing well in the first half of the season. The defense certainly played a part, but outside of a couple games (New Orleans, Carolina) they were averaging around 18-20 points per game which isn’t terrible. So I guess the only thing we can say is that it was a team effort.
31. [-7] Detroit Lions (2007: 7-9, 2008: 0-16) – You’d think that teams with more to lose might stand a better chance to make #31 on this list, but the 2008 Detroit Lions’ season was epic. Starting the season with Jon Kitna before placing him on IR in week 5 under suspect circumstances, Dan Orlovsky’s casual romp out of the back of the end zone against the Vikings in week 6 (final score: 12-10), firing General Manager Matt Millen, and bringing in Daunte Culpepper back to the NFC North, the Lions managed to finish in the bottom 5 in almost every meaningful statistical category. The silver lining? Calvin Johnson is living up to his draft status, finishing the season with an exceptional 1,331 yards and 12 touchdowns, tied for the league lead with Larry Fitzgerald. Head coach Rod Marinelli was fired and the Lions begin the rebuilding process with the first overall pick in the 2009 Draft.
30. [-6] Jacksonville Jaguars (2007: 11-5, 2008: 5-11) – While most of the Jaguars’ woes can be attributed to a number of significant injuries on their offensive line, their problems went much deeper as the season went on. Their starting middle linebacker was benched for disagreeing with Jack Del Rio in a team meeting. Newly resigned David Garrard threw 15 touchdowns against 13 interceptions in 2008 compared with 18 touchdowns and 3 interceptions in 2007. The defense couldn’t muster a pass rush despite drafting Derrick Harvey 8th overall and Quentin Groves in the second round. Fred Taylor started complaining before getting hurt and placed on IR, and was released in the offseason. Releasing free agency busts Joey Porter and Drayton Florence, the Jaguars have major holes to fill on both sides of the ball.
29. [-6] Cleveland Browns (2007: 10-6, 2008: 4-12) – The Browns’ dismal 2008 showing resulted in the firing of GM Phil Savage and the firing of former head coach Romeo Crennel. Honestly I’m not sold on putting the blame on Savage- it’s hard to win when the first three quarterbacks on the depth chart go on IR- but not scoring a touchdown in 6 straight games is frankly an amazing “accomplishment” and goes straight back to the playcalling. Also in fairness to Savage, Brady Quinn did look like he could be successful before his injury. The Browns’ easy 2007 Cinderella season came back to haunt them with a much more difficult schedule and the re-emergence of the Baltimore Ravens as a force in the NFC North. With the subsequent hiring of Eric Mangini and the trading of malcontent Kellen Winslow Jr. to Tampa Bay, the Browns have their work cut out for them rebuilding a franchise still recovering from the Tim Couch experiment.
28. [-6] Seattle Seahawks (2007: 10-6, 2008: 4-12) – The main reason the Seahawks’ were so pitiful on offense stems mainly from injury. Franchise quarterback Matt Hasselbeck missed the majority of the season with a back injury, and before that Seattle wide receivers were dropping like flies. When you end the season with your starting wide receivers being Koren Robinson and Courtney Taylor, you know you’ve hit rock bottom. Offseason acquisition Julius Jones predictably wasn’t stellar, starting only 10 games and finishing the season with just under 700 yards and 2 touchdowns. Since the offense couldn’t do anything, the defense spent the entire game on the field and as a result finished 25th in scoring and 30th yards allowed. Mike Holmgren’s parting gift was, apparently, a top 5 pick in the 2009 NFL Draft.
27. [-5] New England Patriots (2007: 16-0, 2008: 11-5) – Losing Tom Brady in week 1 (further proof that he sold his soul to the Devil last year) put a serious damper on the Patriots’ plans to continue their domination of the AFC. Backup Matt Cassel had a slow start, but developed into a viable NFL starter and only just missed taking the Patriots into the playoffs. Other significant injuries- Adalius Thomas, Rodney Harrison, Teddy Bruschi, Lawrence Maroney, among others- also contributed to their fall from grace. The Super Bowl Curse is real.
26. [-4] Dallas Cowboys (2007: 13-3, 2008: 9-7) – The Dallas Cowboys soap opera reached new heights this year. Tony Romo’s finger injury cost him 3 games in which the Cowboys went 1-2. A host of chemistry issues with (surprise) canonical loudmouth Terrell Owens and apprentice Roy Williams about the offensive playcalling along with Jerry Jones’ repeated refusal to admit anything was wrong with things like the defense (after giving up 34 points to the Rams and 35 to the Giants two weeks later) only fueled the fire. Losing in spectacular fashion to the Ravens in the Texas Stadium finale on 80-yard runs by Le’Ron McClain and Willis McGahee followed by a 44-6 thrashing in Philadelphia exposed the Cowboys for what they really are; a team with lots of talent that simply can’t win big games. Wade Phillips has to be on the hot seat, while offensive coordinator Jason Garrett has seen his stock fall from speculation that he would be named the Cowboys’ next coach to whether or not he will keep his job in the offseason as well. Oh well, at least they released TO.
25. [-3] San Diego Chargers (2007: 11-5, 2008: 8-8) – Things didn’t go right for the Chargers from the start of the season when Jake Delhomme rifled a pass in between three Chargers defenders to hit Dante Rosario in the end zone for a last-second victory in Carolina. Shawn Merriman’s knee injury cost him the remainder of the season, while star running back LaDainian Tomlinson was slowed for much of the year with a toe injury. Lack of a pass rush exposed a ball-hawking secondary that all of the sudden wasn’t able to stay in man coverage long enough for the defensive line to get to the quarterback. While their final record should really read something along the lines of 8-7-0-1, with the fourth column denoting Ed Hochuli’s contribution to the season, the Chargers did not play up to their opponents and as a result were beaten by all of the 2008 teams that made the playoffs.
24. [-3] Cincinnati Bengals (2007: 7-9, 2008: 4-12) – Why Marvin Lewis gets to keep his job while Romeo Crennel loses his is beyond me; at least Crennel has had a winning season as head coach in the last 5 years. Chad Johnson’s ridiculous offseason demand to be traded fizzled before he shut up and went through the motions of masquerading as an NFL starting wide receiver. He certainly didn’t up his stock any with his 540 yards and 4 touchdowns. For once it was not the Bengals’ defense that shoulders the majority of the blame, as the offense finished 32nd in points and total yards per game. When Cedric Benson is signed off the street and represents an upgrade to your starting running back corps, you know you’re in trouble. The good news? They’ve earned a high draft pick they can use on another linebacker to put on IR.
23. [-2] Kansas City Chiefs (2007: 4-12, 2008: 2-14) – The Chiefs traded Jared Allen to the Vikings in the offseason and subsequently finished the regular season with 10 team sacks. Allen finished with 14.5. The Kansas City defense was like a sieve finishing 30th in rush defense and 28th in pass defense (and they only finished that high because teams could run as much as they wanted to). 20-year GM Carl Peterson announced his resignation effective immediately after the season, and the Chiefs hired former New England General Manager Scott Pioli to reinvent the franchise. The Chiefs’ quest for the number one pick in the 2009 Draft was foiled by sneaky Detroit, and Larry Johnson has asked for his way off the team (blessing in disguise?). Future Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez might have been appeased by the blockbuster trade Pioli pulled off for Matt Cassel, but it remains to be seen whether the Chiefs can reasonably be a contender within the next few seasons.
22. [-1] Indianapolis Colts (2007: 13-3, 2008: 12-4) – The Colts started the season 3-4 before things started to fall into place for them and finished with a 9-game winning streak. As seems to be a trend with the Colts, injuries to running back Joseph Addai, left tackle Tony Ugoh, center Jeff Saturday, safety Bob Sanders, middle linebacker Gary Brackett, and cornerback Marlin Jackson as well as two preseason surgeries on Peyton Manning’s knee contributed to the early ineptitude. The Colts lost the AFC South title for the first time in 6 years to the first-seeded Tennessee Titans. Franchise wide receiver Marvin Harrison asked for and was granted his release from the team, but with the resigning of center Jeff Saturday and three-time MVP Peyton Manning, the Colts will be contenders.
21. [-1] Washington Redskins (2007: 9-7, 2008: 8-8) – The Redskins started the season with a loss on opening day to the Giants before ripping off four straight wins including two impressive road victories at Dallas and at Philadelphia. At the bye they were 6-3 with all of their remaining division games at home; the Redskins seemed like contenders for the NFC East title. Clinton Portis was leading the league in rushing while the media was singing the praises of rookie head coach jim Zorn. However, losses to Dallas, the Giants, Baltimore, and Cincinnati put them firmly out of the playoff picture, leading Zorn to proclaim he felt like “the worst coach in America” an also starting speculation that Redskins owner Dan Snyder might be looking to replace him. That probably won’t happen, but the Redskins really need to take a look at what happened in their Dallas Cowboys-esque late season collapse. In the offseason Snyder returned to his usual ways of throwing money at big-name free agents in the hopes that he can buy a Super Bowl, resigning cornerback DeAngelo Hall and luring defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth with a record-setting contract.
20. [-1] St. Louis Rams (2007: 3-13, 2008: 2-14) – The Rams started the season 0-4, allowing an average of 36.8 points. In their week 5 bye, head coach Scott Linehan was fired and defensive coordinator (!) Jim Haslett was promoted to take his place. Despite the dangers of promoting a defensive coordinator whose schemes were allowing 36 points per game, Haslett managed to pull out two wins before losing every single game after week 7. To Haslett’s credit, he did lower the Rams’ defensive points per game to 26.5 after the bye (which still would have been 6th-worst in the league). When the Rams informed Haslett that they were not considering him for the head coaching job once the season ended, he said he was “surprised.” Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo took the reigns instead.
19. [0] Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2007: 9-7, 2008: 9-7) - The Bucs didn’t count on having a difficult time in the doldrumic NFC South, but the re-emergence of the Panthers and the surprise of rookie quarterback Matt Ryan and Michael Turner in Atlanta conspired to keep the Bucs out of the playoffs. Early in the season the offense struggled to put points on the board and Jon Gruden & company leaned heavily on Monte Kiffin and the defense. Going into week 16 the Bucs were 9-5 with the languishing Chargers and the perennial whipping boys the Raiders left on the schedule. Everything seemed to be going fine until news broke that Kiffin was leaving the Bucs after the season to join his son Lane as defensive coordinator for the Tennessee Volunteers. The result? Epic collapse; allowing 41 points to the Chargers and 31 to the Raiders- both losses at home. Kiffin’s departure, the firing of coach John Gruden, and release of future Hall of Famer Derrick Brooks practically wipes out the Bucs’ familiar faces, and they seem to be in for an interesting 2009.
18. [0] Houston Texans (2007: 8-8, 2008: 8-8) – The Texans had a roller coaster season but things aren’t looking so bad. For the second straight season they didn’t finish with a losing record, while Andre Johnson solidified his status as the most dangerous wide receiver in the league. Rookie third-round pick Steve Slaton exploded onto the scene after replacing washed out Ahman Green as the starter and finished with 1282 yards and 9 touchdowns. The defense is still the weak link, but Mario Williams finished with 12 sacks and the defense as a whole is young. Gary Kubiak is borderline hot seat if he doesn’t at least get the Texans to 9-7 next season, but if Matt Schaub can stay on his feet the Texans offense should be able to carry them to 9 wins.
17. [0] Buffalo Bills (2007: 7-9, 2008: 7-9) – The Bills’ excuse last season was a starting lineup with 10 starters on injured reserve. This season there’s not such an easy explanation. The Bills and second-year quarterback Trent Edwards made some noise early on, starting 5-1 before getting into division play. That’s where things took a turn for the worst as the Bills finished 0-6 against AFC East opponents. Head coach Dick Jauron, signed to a 3-year extension during the Bills’ week 6 bye, somehow managed to keep his job as head coach after being shut out in Buffalo against the Patriots (and, in fairness, against the wind) in week 17. The Bills list of needs is long, and includes fundamentals like a halfway decent tight end and a pass. With the future of the franchise in flux due to the economics of running any sort of major business in Western New York, the Bills are hoping that the signing of Terrell Owens is the spark they need to sell their seats.
How did your team do? Discuss in the comments. Teams 16-1 will be posted tomorrow!
Technorati Tags: NFL, expectations, football, Super Bowl, 2008 NFL season, Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions, Cleveland Browns, Seattle Seahawks, New England Patriots, Dallas Cowboys, San Diego Chargers, Cincinnati Bengals, Kansas City Chiefs, Indianapolis Colts, Washington Redskins, St. Louis Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Houston Texans, Buffalo Bills, Terrell Owens, Dick Jauron, Steve Slaton, Mario Williams, Gary Kubiak, Kiffin, Derrick Brooks, Jim Haslett, Steve Spagnuolo, Albert Haynesworth, DeAngelo Hall, Clinton Portis, Dan Snyder, Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Jared Allen, Matt Cassel, Tom Brady, Marvin Lewis, Romeo Crennel, Phil Savage, Chad Johnson, Jake Delhomme, DeAngelo Williams, Ed Hochuli, Joe Flacco, Tony Romo, Jerry Jones, Bill Belichick, Matt Hasselbeck, TJ Houshmandzadeh, Mike Holmgren, Brett Favre, Brady Quinn, Fred Taylor, Jack Del Rio, Matt Millen, Calvin Johnson, Aaron Rodgers
[...] ranks 32-17, see The Expectations Power Rankings, Part I. (Note: as with part I, this is a pre-draft edited version of my original post on a friend’s [...]